Foreign investors made a significant turnaround and injected over Rs 1,500 crore into Indian equities in February, reversing the massive outflows seen in the preceding month, primarily due to robust corporate earnings and positive economic growth. Additionally, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) continued to be bullish on the debt markets as they put in over Rs 22,419 crore during the month under review, data with the depositories showed. Looking ahead to March, the outlook for FPI flow appears promising, provided the current economic trajectory and corporate performance sustain their positive momentum, potentially continuing to attract foreign investment into Indian equities, Mayank Mehraa, smallcase manager and principal partner at Craving Alpha, said.
Mutual funds have invested nearly Rs 94,500 crore in equities thus far in CY17, compared to Rs 32,000 crore in the year ago period, at a time when foreign investors have turned net sellers of India since August.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have pulled out over Rs 10,000 crore from Indian equities in the first three weeks of September, primarily due to rising US interest rates, recessionary fears, and overvalued domestic stocks. Before the outflow, FPIs were incessantly buying Indian equities in the last six months from March to August and brought in Rs 1.74 lakh crore during the period. Mayank Mehra, smallcase, manager and principal partner at Craving Alpha,believes that strong economic growth prospects, attractive valuations, and government reforms could support foreign investment flows in the next month.
The exodus of FPIs from the Indian equity markets continued unabated, as they withdrew over Rs 7,300 crore (about $840 million) in the first week of this month due to global trade tensions, with the US imposing tariffs on countries such as Canada, Mexico, and China. This came following an outflow of Rs 78,027 crore in the entire January. Before that, they invested Rs 15,446 crore in December, data with the depositories showed.
In a remarkable comeback, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped Rs 1.7 lakh crore into the Indian equity markets in 2023, propelled by confidence in the country's robust economic fundamentals amid a challenging global landscape. The year 2023 has witnessed massive investment by FPIs, thanks to the sharp uptick in inflows of Rs 66,134 crore in December. Going forward, FPI flows are expected to be robust.
'He will be remembered more for what he did as finance minister -- as someone who functioned well when the political fallout was taken care of.'
Foreign investors have pulled out Rs 26,533 crore from the Indian equity market this month so far owing to increasing allocations to China, concerns over muted corporate earnings and elevated valuation of domestic stocks. While the sell-off continues, the quantum of net outflows has significantly reduced compared to October, when Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) withdrew Rs 94,017 crore ($11.2 billion) on a net basis.
Foreign investors have poured Rs 57,359 crore into Indian equities in September, making it the highest inflow in nine months, mainly driven by a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. With this infusion, foreign portfolio investors' (FPIs) investment in equities has surpassed the Rs 1 lakh crore mark in 2024, data with the depositories showed. Going ahead, FPI inflows are likely to remain robust, driven by global interest rate easing and India's strong fundamentals.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have withdrawn over Rs 12,000 crore from Indian equities this month so far, mainly due to a sustained rise in US bond yields and the uncertain environment resulting from the Israel-Hamas conflict. However, the story takes an intriguing turn on observing FPI activity in Indian debt as they have infused over Rs 5,700 crore into the debt market during the period under review, data with the depositories showed. Going ahead, the trajectory of FPIs' investments in India will be influenced not only by global inflation and interest rate dynamics but also by the developments and intensity of the Israel-Hamas conflict, Himanshu Srivastava, associate director - manager research, Morningstar Investment Adviser India, said.
The Indian equity market is likely to remain under pressure and rangebound over the next few months. This comes as global central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve look at a possibility of hiking rates aggressively to tame inflation. Back home, the Reserve Bank of India, too, remains data dependent in its endeavour to keep inflation in check and pursue an aggressive monetary policy stance.
Rising oil prices, sharp slowdown in mutual fund inflows and steep valuations remain the key risks for Indian investors going ahead.
A host of macroeconomic data announcements, the last batch of September quarter earnings, global trends, and trading activity of foreign investors will be the major driving factors for the equity market this week, according to analysts. Equity markets would remain closed on Friday for Guru Nanak Jayanti. "India is set to release CPI and IIP data on November 12, with WPI data expected on November 14.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) selling spree continued as they dumped Indian equity worth over Rs 5,800 crore this month so far on rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This came after such investors withdrew Rs 24,548 crore in October and Rs 14,767 crore in September, data with the depositories showed. Before the outflow, FPIs were incessantly buying Indian equities in the last six months from March to August and brought in Rs 1.74 lakh crore during the period.
CLSA managing director & equity strategist Christopher Wood, and executive director Mahesh Nandurkar tell Puneet Wadhwa that the markets could give a return of around 10 per cent from the current level over the next year.
Foreign investors turned net sellers in October, offloading shares worth Rs 27,142 crore in just the first three days of October due to intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran, a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and improved performance of Chinese markets. The outflow came after FPI investment reached a nine-month high of Rs 57,724 crore in September. Since June, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have consistently bought equities after withdrawing Rs 34,252 crore in April-May.
Higher valuation creation in companies beyond the top 100 has given the domestic markets a shot at a $4 trillion market capitalisation (mcap) - a club exclusive to three countries currently. On November 23, the mcap of all BSE-listed stocks finished at a new record of Rs 328.33 trillion ($3.94 trillion), despite the benchmark indices ending with losses. The mcap was propelled by gains in the broader market, including small and midcap stocks - a trend dominant this year.
The faster-than-expected rise in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) shook global financial markets in early 2022. And now the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has lifted commodity prices, with Brent crude oil hitting a 14-year high of $139 a barrel in intraday trade. All these developments have sent the equity markets across the world into a tailspin.
The rally in Indian mid-and smallcap indices thus far in calendar year 2024 (CY24) has been the best in class across the world, eclipsing the global FTSE benchmarks, and also out running peers from other leading world stock markets. This is despite the correction in the mid-and smallcap segments back home seen in the last few days, triggered by valuation concerns, geopolitical developments amid nervousness ahead of the July - September 2024 (Q2-FY25) corporate results season.
'The Paris Olympics has once again blessed the Indian sports marketing landscape with fresh faces and promises.' 'Expect at least one biopic.'
Foreign investors pumped in Rs 11,119 crore in the Indian equities in December, making it the second consecutive monthly inflow, despite increasing concerns over the re-emergence of Covid-19 cases in some parts of the world. However, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have turned cautious in recent days. The inflow in December was much lower compared to Rs 36,239 crore invested by FPIs in the month of November, data with the depositories showed.
Thus far in FY21, BSE, NSE have rallied 70 per cent and 71 per cent, respectively.
After withdrawing record funds in 2021-22, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continued their sell-off in the last fiscal too and pulled out Rs 37,631 crore from Indian equities amid aggressive rate hikes by central banks globally. The outflow trend is likely to reverse in the current financial year since India has the best growth potential in the financial year 2023-24 (FY24), VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said. Market analysts believe that FPI flows in the current financial year would be decided by a host of factors, such as the US Federal Reserve's policy stance, oil prices movement and development in the geopolitical situation.
It won't be an easy ride for the markets, reckon experts, considering the multiple state elections in 2018 and general elections next year.
Analysts caution a non-BJP government is not an impossible scenario. In case of a Modi-led coalition, they advise investors to focus on discretionary consumption, select private banks and financials, RIL, housing, and IT.
Domestic institutional investors pumped Rs 2.3 trillion into equities during H1 CY24. Of this, mutual funds contributed 80%.
Indian markets started 2012 on a positive note. Ridham Desai, managing director and strategist and head of India equity research, Morgan Stanley, says, he expects a 15 per cent upside in the Sensex this year.
The bull run in the Indian equity markets is intact, said analysts at Morgan Stanley in a recent note. They expect the S&P BSE Sensex to hit 80,000 levels by December 2023 in their bull-case scenario, to which they have assigned a 30 per cent probability. From the current level, this translates into an upside of nearly 29 per cent.
Even though stocks may remain volatile in the run-up to the polls, as political parties stitch up alliances, the long-term trajectory for the markets remains bullish.
The improving earnings and economic outlook has titled the scales back in favour of Indian equities this year, reports Pavan Burugula.
The surge in oil prices has also affected the rupee, which hit a 6-week low of 70.25 on Friday against the dollar.
Continuing their massive selling spree for the ninth consecutive month, foreign investors dumped Indian shares worth Rs 50,203 crore in June -- the highest net outflow in over two years -- amid aggressive rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, elevated inflation and relatively higher valuation of domestic equities. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have now pulled out around Rs 2.2 lakh crore from domestic equities in the first six months of 2022 -- the highest-ever net withdrawal by them. Before that, FPIs withdrew Rs 52,987 crore in the entire 2008, data with depositories showed.
Continuing its heavy selling spree for the eighth consecutive month, foreign investors pulled out nearly Rs 40,000 crore from the Indian equity market in May on fears of an aggressive rate hike by US Federal Reserve that dented investor sentiments. With this, net outflow by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) from equities reached at Rs 1.69 lakh crore so far in 2022, data with depositories showed. Going ahead, FPI flows will remain volatile in the emerging markets on account of rising geo-political risk, rising inflation, tightening of monetary policy by central banks, among others, Shrikant Chouhan, Head - Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities said.
Bulls might be on the rampage on Dalal Street but lofty valuations of the Indian equities present a reason for concern and the markets could perhaps witness up to 10 per cent correction, according to analysts. Benchmark indices have been on a record-breaking rally lately and August witnessed the stock market reaching many new highs. The BSE benchmark soared over 9 per cent last month.
While analysts remains overweight on financials, property, discretionary, industrials and materials, they maintain a neutral stance on pharma, telecom and energy; and underweight on staples, utilities, and IT services.
The proposal to increase public float, hike income tax surcharge, move to tax share buybacks and lack of stimulus to shore up economic growth has hurt investor sentiment.
Mutual funds have ratcheted up Rs 53,700 crore (Rs 537 billion) through new fund offers (NFOs) in 2022 until November, against Rs 1 trillion in Calendar 2021, notwithstanding the number of launches this year eclipsing the 2021 tally. Industry insiders cite the absence of launches in popular categories as the reason behind lower collections this year. Typically, only NFOs in popular categories from major fund houses rake in the moolah.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pulled out Rs 4,515 crore from the equities segment in the first half of July as they turn cautious towards the Indian market. "With markets trading near all-time high, FPIs would have chosen to book profits. "They have also been staying on the sidelines given high valuations and most likely on the back of the risk of a potential third wave of the coronavirus pandemic," said Morningstar India associate director (manager research) Himanshu Srivastava. Though the continuing firmness in the dollar and the possibility of rising bond yields in the US do not augur well for capital flows into emerging markets like India, there is no immediate worry at the moment, he said.
Mutual funds (MFs) have stepped up equity purchases after staying on the fence for over two months. Their net equity investments reached a four-month high of Rs 7,700 crore in July, rising for the fourth consecutive month after withdrawing a net of Rs 5,100 crore in April 2023. This trend continued in August, with net investments of Rs 3,400 crore in the first three trading sessions, according to data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India.
The banks says that valuations are reasonable.
'In the overall global portfolio, India's weighting has come down in the past seven months.'
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